est.alejo.ch: Conclusions
- Posted: 2026-08-25
- 1 min
TL;DR: My confidence is well calibrated. I should ~never bet <60%.
Introduction
These are my main conclusions after playing 60 games (480 questions) of est.alejo.ch.
Educated guesses
I should ~never go with less than ~60% confidence. I sometimes think “Hmm, here I actually have no idea!” but I almost always have some information. Very indirect “context” information goes a long way.
Even though I play almost exclusively on hard mode, I used 51% confidence on very few (2.3%) answers and I shouldn’t have: I had a success ratio of 64%.
Relatively well calibrated
I’m relatively well-calibrated, if very slightly under-confident:
| Confidence | Success ratio |
|---|---|
| 51% | 64% |
| 60% | 63% |
| 70% | 73% |
| 80% | 84% |
| 90% | 87% |
| 99% | 99% |