est.alejo.ch
TL;DR
Are you over- or under-confident in your own knowledge? Find out: est.alejo.ch
Playing
A game is a series of questions comparing two events. For each, indicate:
- Which event happened first.
- How confident you are in your answer.
The main goal is not get all answers right (though, of course, you should aim for that); rather, it is get your confidence values right.
Don’t research while playing! Answer from what you knew at the start. You can’t skip questions.
When you’re done, click Finish.
Stats
After playing, you’ll get a Confidence Calibration graph, showing the ratio of answers you got correct for each confidence value. Are you under-confident near the low-end (51%) and over-confident near the high-end (90%, 99%)?
History shows the aggregate across all your games. With few answers (e.g., playing just once or twice), randomness plays a large role —maybe your confidence scores are perfect, you’re just unlucky. Play multiple times to get a good sense of your actual performance (hooray law of large numbers).
Background
The game is fully contained in your browser (has no server-side logic), storing the game log with the localStorage API. The source code is available on GitHub under the GPLv3 license.
Being able to correctly assess how confident we should be about a given property plays an important role in forecasting and decision making. This game was inspired by a few “manual” exercises I ran with my engineering team at Google based on ideas from Douglas Hubbard’s book How to Measure Anything.